Things that might happen at World Cup 2010

Wide-open games. The last several World Cups have seen a steady decrease in goals scored, from 2.7 goals per game in 1994 to 2.3 at Germany 06. That should change this time for a few reasons. Squads like Holland and Spain have a rich vein of goal scorers throughout their lineups; the African qualifiers are all led by athletic, goal-oriented attacks (the possible loss of Drogba by Cote D’Ivoire aside) that could lead to a goal glut; teams like USA and Australia have matured and have attacking midfielders who have honed their skills in Europe. Packing the box may not work so well this time around.

African teams to crash out early. Every tournament, pundits claim that this is the year an African nation will advance deep into the World Cup and win it all. That won’t happen in 2010 because while attacking is fun, defense wins tournaments. Even with an expected rise in goals scored, the better attacking sides also have good defenders. Cote D’Ivoire are strong, especially if Drogba plays, but they are also in the Group of Death. They have to get past Brazil and Portugal, something that will be interesting to watch.

The rise of Concacaf. One of the traditional minnows of the World Cup are actually better than advertised. Tournament success has as much to do with the road to the championship as talent. Both the US and Mexico have winnable draws and could win their respective groups (settle down, England). One quarterfinal draw could feature a Concacaf derby, US v MEX in a North American grudge match. Miss that match at your own peril.

Later-round excitement. There are quite some tantalizing matchups potentially awaiting after the first round, which only has Brazil v Portugal on tap. Starting in the Second Round, we may see Portugal v Spain, England v Germany and France v Argentina. The Quarterfinals could see Holland-Brazil, Argentina-Germany, England-Argentina or Mexico-USA. There is every likelihood that the championship match will be a reprise of 1974, with Holland facing arch-nemesis Germany. Dare to dream.

Say no to the samba beat. Brazil are always favorites but we don’t think they will get past Holland in the quarterfinals. If that match takes place, it could be an instant all-time classic. In fact, while we would definitely be surprised, it would not shock the CounterAttack if Brazil fail to get out of their group. You heard it here first….

Better referee decisions. We just think that after so much focus on referees, they are due for a good tournament. We fully expect referees to get into better positions, get the offside calls right, call the matches tighter, look for flagrant or violent fouls, and not tolerate dissent. We also see more judicious use of cautions and send offs.

Injuries to play a role. This could be the biggest factor in which teams advance. Already, players like Michael Essien, Didier Drogba, Michael Ballack, Arjen Robben, Rio Ferdinand will miss all or part of the tournament. That makes squad depth a significant factor and many squads just don’t have the depth beyond their starters. However, while that may change how the groups play out, we still expect the favorites to get through. This will, however, affect the later round matchups more significantly.

Let the Games begin!

US national team pieces falling into place

On the day after the afternoon before against Turkey, the CounterAttack found some causes for optimism ahead of lineup choices that Bob Bradley will have in South Africa. Certain things became more clear during the match. What is most encouraging is that certain players have started to step up, becoming impossible to overlook.

The experiment to use Carlos Bocanegra as a left wingback seems to be a success. Ok, it won’t work against teams with very quick wingers. On the whole, however, Chuckie does a good job bringing the ball up to provide more attacking options without losing too much on the defensive end. Think “Gary Neville Lite” (er, but on the left side).

It is also clear that gammy leg or not, Gooch Onyewu is the only choice for center-half. Too often the back line gave the Turks space to move. This led not only to their goal but also to several clear-cut opportunities. Gooch is a physical presence who presses his marks and doesn’t allow them space. He seems to inspire DeMerit when they partner, so hopefully Jay will have a better match than last night’s game.

Cherundolo as the other wingback is, in the CounterAttack’s opinion, a given. Trumbolo is too experience and yesterday showed what happens with unsteady players. The back line should therefore be set because Spector, Goodson and Bornstein all had iffy nights. It is difficult to see any of them called into a critical match.

Up front, let’s hope that Bradley will cut out the Dempsey-for-striker nonsense. An effective Clint Dempsey is a Deuce that has space to play into. He is most lethal from 20-30 yards out. Playing as attacking MF, he forces defenses to stretch further out from goal, opening up holes that can lead to goals. Deuce is neither a back-to-goal striker nor a go-ahead striker. He can, however, carve up a defense, create opportunities for himself, or lay passes off for teammates to run onto. These require space to roam and Bradley should harness Clint’s abilities properly.

Meanwhile, at this point Landon is the closest thing the MNT has ever had to an unstoppable player. He can move the ball at will and open up space. In fact, ever since the Italy match in Germany ’06, he has only been stopped by his teammates when they don’t score of his creations. Pairing Lannie as creative MF, with Dempsey as attacking MF, suddenly there are options for the US to score from distance and inside the area.

But the really good news is the emergence of Jose Torres. Immediately the Pachuca midfielder came on to replace the (again) ineffective Rico Clark, the complexion of the midfield changed instantly. Rushed passes do not mean quick decision-making; quite the opposite, they indicate that players are uncertain of what to do with the ball. Torres asserted a calm on the pitch, and suddenly passes were less rushed and more accurate. With Torres on, his teammates found space instead of clogging themselves up. Having a possession midfielder who knows how to hold, move and distribute the ball will do that.

Torres is a very different midfielder than the MNT has enjoyed in some time, since at least the Tab Ramos days (damned shame he was born about 10 years too soon). The only problem is that it will be either Torres or Michael Bradley as starter. Baby Bradley has too much experience and a scoring touch that cannot be ignored. But the emergence of Torres means that Bradley is going to be pushed – a bad series of plays, a stupid foul or caution, and by rights Torres should get the call straightaway.

The US still does not have a player that breaks into any top international side as a starter. But this is definitely a tight squad whose best players know how to play amongst each other quite well. There is a very skilled midfield that can match up well against all but the best squads. The MNT have developed into a really tough lineup, top to bottom, that few will want to face. The last remaining question is “will they score” – but then, that’s the million-dollar question, isn’t it?

Image via AP Photo/Matt Slocum on The Morning Call

Handicapping the Final 23

The CounterAttack is back, just in time for the 2010 World Cup. To get started, we’re going to predict Bob Bradley’s final 23 for the roster to South Africa.

First, we can eliminate some players after last night’s match v Czech Republic. Defense was poor in Hartford, so Heath Pearce made the wrong mistake at the wrong time. Considering that Chad Marshall didn’t play, that speaks volumes. In the midfield, Sacha Kljestan is also out – we never liked him and always wondered why the hype. Forward Robbie Findley is out because he didn’t play, while Eddie Johnson is out because he didn’t do enough last night and is still recovering from injury. Now for who's going:

GKs
Brad Guzan – the Villa keeper still has some work to do. Third-string but on the plane.

Marcus Hahnemann – in our view, the best keeper on the squad but inertia will keep the Wolves man as backup to…

Tim Howard – the US No. 1, his job for this cup and at least the next one too.

DFs
Carlos Bocanegra – a solid, experienced and physical defender. Prone to silly yellow caution cards, but Chuckie Black Mouth is a no-brainer and will captain the squad.

Jonathan Bornstein – we want him to do well. He can do well. He can also stink it up. Let’s hope the Good Bornstein shows up in South Africa.

Steve Cherundolo – the man from Hannover is solid, steady and knows how to bring the ball forward. He’s recovered from injury so he gets a ticket to South Africa.

Jay DeMerit – another one graced by lack of options. A bit slow and not that great moving forward but has done enough to claim a spot.

Clarence Goodson – a work in progress but a decent match last night, on a night where few defenders shined, should be enough. Besides, Bradley said he liked him. Oh well.

Oguchi Onyewu – he looked tired, very tired in the second half last night but that’s match fitness. Two more friendlies should be enough to put the Milan defender back.

Jonathan Spector – the CounterAttack has always liked the West Ham man. He’s unspectacular but calm. He can be beaten by speedy attackers but Fernando Torres and Lionel Messi are in other groups.

MFs
DaMarcus Beasley – Run DMB has had to work his way back into contention. He’ll be going to his third World Cup and if there is any justice, will get a goal to make up for his disallowed goal v Italy in ’06.

Alejandro Bedoya – the CounterAttack has to admit not knowing much about him but he was a calming presence v CZE last night. And, everyone seems to think he’ll go. We won’t argue.

Michael Bradley – no question. The attack will run through him and Donovan.

Ricardo Clark – a stronger squad might leave him off but he’s come on strong. Rico seems to have learned from his mistakes. Not a starter but he’s going.

Clint Dempsey – there are quite a few no-brainers. The Fulham man is one of them.

Landon Donovan – (no comment, none needed)

Maurice Edu – he’ll likely make it after last night’s performance. Scored the goal and offers some options as a defender. That’s key in tournament play.

Benny Feilhaber – oh, we like the kid who scored that wonder goal v MEX in the 07 Gold Cup final. We want him to do well.

Stuart Holden – we have been impressed with Holden since his Dynamo days. It’s his brain that makes him so important. Apparently Bolton were impressed with his match last night – they’ve just offered to extend his contract while he’s still inexpensive.

José Torres – nice to see the Pachuca man out there. We think he did enough to impress.

Strikers
Jozy Altidore – but we think he should come off the bench v ENG.

Edson Buddle – World Cup history is full of strikers who got hot at the right time. With his hot streak in MLS right now, it's tough to leave him out. We're going out on a limb on this one.

Herculez Gomez – the CounterAttack has been screaming for his inclusion. He came on last night, everyone expected him to score. He did. End of.

Wild Card
Robbie Rogers – we like him. A lot. Think he should go. Might go. Don’t be surprised, probably at Rico's expense.


image via John Dorton/US Soccer

The future, nearly here

Back to back matches for Jozy Altidore, and four more goals to his tally. Six in nine games is a legitimate pace. Can anyone doubt that he is the future of American soccer? Nah, this is what everyone expected from Altidore, the first true international striker the US has ever had.

The fun begins now, though. For the first time, the Men's National Team is solid up the middle. Altidore is a true go-ahead striker with a nose for goal. He is balanced by attacking midfielder Clint Dempsey. It remains a mystery why Deuce is not featured more for his club but the fact remains that this guy can play. Both attackers are supported by midfielder Michael Bradley, who was good enough to play below his own usually-high standards and yet remain effective. Behind them is Oguchi Onyewu, the imposing central defender called Gooch who is a monster in defense, strong enough to make up for lack of pace. And then the anchor, Tim Howard, the latest in a decade-long run of excellent US goalkeepers.

The revelations from the Trinidad & Tobago and El Salvador matches: Landon Donovan is an excellent winger, DeMarcus Beasley can play a wingback from the left side, and Pablo Mastroeni still has mileage left as a defensive midfielder. While Steve Cherundolo should still be the right fullback when he returns, Frankie Hejduk is making himself indispensable. I still think he wouldn't be as effective against top-tier sides; one goal and an impressive game-saving tackle make it impossible to overlook him.

Let's hope that Coach Bradley keeps this formation, with Donovan on the wing and Jozy up front. Heck, even the pairing of Jozy with Brian Ching could be really effective - Brian is strong enough to create space for Altidore if necessary, and he can mop up on goals, putting away second-chance opportunities.

It is the new role for Donovan, however, that really excites. Putting him a little further back in the formation means he gets the ball earlier, which puts his on-the-ball talents to work. He can still shoot and even wander into the penalty area but if defenders collapse on him, then Landon can simply dump out to Altidore... or Dempsey. Both have a nose for goal, and suddenly the US has a three-pronged attack.

Having Beasley as left fullback, in a wingback role where he pushes the ball up from the back, might be another stroke of genius. It all depends whether he can regain his ability to withstand physical challenges. If he can, the tradeoff in defensive abilities would more than pay off.

Of course, playing in Confacaf doesn't provide a good enough test of what's up. Beating T&T is not necessarily saying much. But then again, Holland had to play Macedonia - roughly the same test. That said, it's important for teams to beat up the weaker sides, so a 3-nil victory is indeed impressive. Let's not forget that the MNT can consistently beat second-tier European sides.

The frustration is when the MNT plays the Italys and Hollands in a match, friendly or tournament. One of these days the US will not be impressed by England's shirt and get a win against the Three Lions, which historically flatter to deceive.

What we can see now is the future of the US national side. US Soccer should look to schedule friendlies against top-tier sides, heading down to South America for a different style of play besides playing the usual Euros. And if they play European teams, they should concentrate on playing France, Spain, Germany in favor of the Polands of Europe.

This is a solid team that can begin to establish itself as a perennial second-round-or-better, and eventually perennial quarterfinalists. It's not an automatic path, of course, but watching Jozy makes it a more realistic possibility.

A coming-out party, or how to win a draw

One could look at the match v El Salvador as a negative. Leading the Hexagonal in Concacaf's World Cup qualifiers, the US should have been able to win in Tegulcigalpa. The MNT has only one loss in Bob Bradley's career in WCQs while winning 15 qualifying matches. So by rights, a 2-2 result should be an indictment.

Here's the thing: I can't recall the last time the MNT came back from two goals so late in a match to gain points. I'm quite sure it's "never".

The team didn't play so well but never gave up - a hallmark of all MNT squads since at least the 1990s. This time, however, that can-do spirit was matched to the best talent the US has ever had. The difference maker, quite obviously, was Jozy Altidore.

Why Bob Bradley insists on keeping him on the bench is a mystery. You can say all you want about his lack of playing time at Xerez (wanna bet that doesn't continue much longer?) or that he's only 19 or... whatever. The thing is, this. kid. can. play.

He has the size to match physical defenders, is strong on the ball, and always wants the ball. More importantly, he knows what to do with the ball once he gets it. Don't forget that this is the kid who overshadowed David Beckham in the "Beckham match" at the Meadowlands some 18 months ago.

This time, Altidore came on around the 60th minute and instantly changed the tenor of the match. Within minutes he had created a shot on goal. A lackluster squad suddenly had a focal point. That's what Jozy can do. Not only did he score the first goal but if Hejduk had missed getting to his header for the win, guess who was right behind Frankie, sure to pick up the ball and almost certainly ready to put the ball away?

So let's hope we see more of Jozy. A 19 yr-old with his skills should be starting, and if there are reasons why he's kept on the bench, then find a way to work around them. No one else on the squad can do what he does.

Diamonds, after all, need light to shine.

UEFA hubris

During the first week of the tournament, I felt that the referees were being unfairly criticised. Their calls were technically correct, and actually allowed flow to the game. Commentators were mostly wrong about the nature of the calls the referee were making, but a worrying trend regarding cautions started to creep into view. And as World Cup 2006 continues, it's become quite clear that the story of THIS Cup is the officiating.

There have been missed calls, disallowed goals, erroneous penalties, way too many send offs, and a very definite lack of dealing with players except through cards. Worse, and this one I cannot prove, there is at least the perception of a bias against the non-traditional powers. The stats show less fouls for the Englands, Brazils and Argentinas than for the Togos, Japans, et al.

There is, however, a delicious bit of irony in all this. During and after the 2002 Japorea tournament, there was an enormous hue and cry about substandard referees being allowed to officiate games beyond their abilities. Referees from CAF, AFC and CONCACAF, they argued, are not accustomed to working such pivotal matches.

Who are "they"? Officials from UEFA federations, for the most part. The snobbery inherent in these arguments was disgusting. After all, American referees had particularly distinguished themselves in three of the previous four tournaments. The hubris was, well, hubristic.

Where was the referee from that for the first time allowed a player to be cautioned three times? England. And the referee that issued a staggering 16 cautions, a World Cup record four send-offs and only 25 total fouls? Russia. How about the referee that incorrectly sent off an Italian player while whistling a game-deadening forty-three fouls (or nearly one ever other minute)? Yup, UEFA ref, from Spain.

And on and on and on. Records have already been set for total number of cautions and send-offs, and we still have 10 games left! There has been little man-management in evidence. The body language of most of these officials is very confrontational, dictatorial even. Cards are presented by thrusting them into players' faces, rather than calmly being presented. These are basic mechanics that are taught to entry-level referees.

It is in summation better a guide for how not to officiate a game rather than a showcase demonstrating the best ways to manage a game.

Obviously it's not just European referees at fault -- it was an American 4th official, after all, who also allowed a player to stay on with two cautions. But since UEFA referees are being given the lion's share of the pivotal matches, they are expected to set the standard. Net result? They haven't proven themselves to be any better than referees from other confederations. Having watched many a match in many of the major European leagues, and qualifiers for the Euro championship and this World Cup, I can say I'm not in the least surprised.

It's the man that makes the referee....